As I am writing this we are in the middle of our latest "end of the world" scenario. The disease Covid-19 (or officially the SARS-CoV-2 virus) is destroying our world.
My issue is, most of the destruction is being caused by the overreaction to the disease. There are about 7.7 Billion people alive at this moment on Earth. There are currently under 300,000 cases confirmed of Covid-19 world-wide. That number won't even calculate as a percentage without severe scientific notation (here it is for those of you interested - 3.896103896103896e-5) Even if this gets 100 times worse and we have 3,000,000 million cases it is STILL too small to show up on a calculator ( just drop the -5 to -4 in the scientific notation number - 3.896103896103896e-4). If it gets 1,000 time worse that will make it show up on a calculator. It will be 3.89% of the population. So 4% of the population would be infected IF this gets 1,000 times worse (and I will admit, it could). However, based on what the WHO and CDC is reporting, 80% of cases are to be compared with a cold. It can be a bad cold or a mild cold, but a cold. So that leaves us with well under 1% that needs/requests medical care (0.77% for those of you keeping score) Out of that number an even smaller percentage will face death.
Let me get something out here, I am not making light of the fact people are dying, or even getting sick. I am trying to put this in perspective. There are few things that we all share as humans. One of those is death. Around 60 Million humans die annually. Sadly a lot of those are preventable. My wife died of a statistically insignificant disease. Do you think the disease was insignificant to her, or me, or any of her family? NO, of course not. I am just trying for perspective by using mathematics and statistics.
Speaking of statistics, here are some causes of death around the world (these are worldwide numbers - FYI, heart disease is number 1 by a long shot, and cancers - combined - are number 2)
53,000 people die from exposure - extreme heat or cold
120,000 die by fire
126,000 hepatitis
500,000 malnutrition of some type (either a lack of specific nutrients or starvation)
295,000 people drown (these are annual figures folks!)
619,000 die from malaria (a disease we have a treatment for and know how to stop)
793,000 by suicide (all are horrible, but this is profoundly sad to me)
950,000 HIV/AIDS
1,180,000 Tuberculosis (which we have a vaccine for and treatments for)
1,240,000 vehicular injury (crash or being struck by a car)
This are just examples. Now for the "biggie": Influenza - the seasonal flu.
Flu kills 50 to 100 million EVERY YEAR!
My point is, we have tragically lost @12,000 humans to Covid-19. There is no argument that the number will grow, maybe by a lot. However statistically this disease, so far, is insignificant.
Why does it matter, you ask? At least here in the USA, a quasi-free country, we have given up our freedom of movement, of association, and other civil liberties. Our economy is being wrecked (if not already) by panicked people making irrational decisions. Entire industries are being ransacked, maybe never to recover. All over 12,000 deaths and a promise of more.
To quote a very bright old white guy: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." Benjamin Franklin
Or to quote a pretty sharp old white woman: "If we gave up our freedom as the price of security, we would no longer be the great nation that we are." Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
This is me going on record that I think the reaction and actions to this disease are ridiculously overblown. (we shall see in a year when the blog reminds me of this post, if not sooner)
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