The recent historic cold weather in Texas and the effects it had on the energy grid there has been bandied about by many politicians, newscasters, and just about everyone else that could (and still can) do so.
The folks on one side are saying that the failure was due to the recent emphasis on green energy, especially the windmills that quit working due to freezing up. The other side is saying it is because Texas separated itself from the national electric grid and was unable to get help from others among other things.
As with most statements that are polar opposites and extreme, the truth appears to lie somewhere in between those two positions.
Here are some facts I have been able to find after hours of study and digging around on websites.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) runs the Texas power grid - which is somewhat independent of the national grid. FYI, most power companies have some level of autonomy and control over their own areas of the country that they supply power to, and do so. All companies and controlling entities - like ERCOT - do work with the national grid. The Texas grid allows more independent power production and wholesale selling onto the Texas grid at market prices. This was to encourage investment and flexibility in production at the cost of some control. The Texas grid is separated from the other major interconnects (areas that share readily) and does not go outside of the borders of Texas to avoid Federal regulations and control. Here is a map of the North American interconnects:
You can see that the Texas interconnect stands alone and covers most of Texas. (I did not find a good explanation for what happens in the purple area that covers part of Texas and five other states!?)
Texas has plenty of power production to handle any "normal" load. The power load in winter in Texas is typically much lower than the summer months and is when power plants and production is taken off-line for maintenance and repair. Combined with the power off-line on purpose and that which did not perform due to the extreme temperatures, there was a problem. The demand was obviously much, much higher than planned and ended up exceeding production capability. I have some facts and figures to demonstrate how unprecedented this power surge was.
First, here is a breakdown of the total electricity production capability in Texas: (note - this is the max if all production was online)
Here is the actual production from October of last year to show an "average month":
You can see there is plenty of potential capacity for production when all of the production is active, which would not happen often, if ever. Excess backup capacity is always preferred "just in case".
Now, here is what was being produced the day before the temperatures dropped to the arctic-like conditions compared to the day of the low temperatures:
As I said in opening, the truth of the matter is somewhere between - "Texas isn't playing nicely with others and screwed up production" and "Green energy caused the problem".
It is true that the Wind production dropped by almost 92% due to the freezing up of the equipment. The day before it was providing just shy of 12% of the total power, and it dropped to under 2%. It is true that solar power is shut down by nature when the sun is not shining (but, solar was not a factor in the drop from day to day as it was not producing a significant amount before the freeze). Hydropower also was non-existent in the sub-freezing temperatures. (a very small portion comes from hydro power anyway)
It is also true that ALL power production methods dropped. The average of all the other types is well over a 25% drop in output. Natural gas, the largest form of production, also dropped the most in real numbers and at 29.4% of the previous days production. This amounted to just under 52% of the overall drop in electricity output just because it is such a large part of the total generating power.
Now the "blame". First, it is not economically feasible to plan and set-up criteria and procedures for every possible catastrophe. If we did that the price of the goods and services would skyrocket. I know you cannot put a price on human life, but I also know that in practice it is not within reason to try to eliminate all downside. Engineers work with managers and politicians to establish a reasonable tradeoff between cost and "safety" as all of us do in almost every aspect of life whether we realize it or not. That being said, natural gas plants as well as windmills can be "winterized" against all but the lowest temperatures. This was not done for many reasons - cost among them I am sure. I also know that some inspections and such were not done due to Covid-19 restrictions. Basically the equipment and plants were not prepared for the drastically colder weather than normal.
It is also true that over the past few years three large coal power plants have been taken off-line. Instead of being "turned off" and left as excess capacity, they were dismantled (or are in the process of being dismantled). If those plants were able to be restarted, even two days or so in, they would have helped prevent the brownouts, maybe totally. Combined with the lack of solar, hydro, and wind production the drop in green energy output was a huge factor.
The lack of preparing the gas power plants for the excessive cold was a huge factor as mentioned. I could not find figures as to how low of a temperature the "winterization" could have allowed the plants to perform in, but it is obvious it would have made a difference. There is also one other aspect of natural gas distribution that is set-up to help consumers, but ends up hurting more in a crisis like this with unprecedented temperatures. Gas distribution is diverted from businesses (including power plants) to go to consumers as much as possible to keep those furnaces and ranges going in homes. Lastly, I also read that the great demand lowered the pressure in the gas lines that made all use of natural gas somewhat "iffy". (a thought just came to me - matter shrinks in cold - so I am guessing the natural gas would have also had less volume in the ridiculously cold pipes which would have lowered pressure)
Was the move to green power to blame - Yes!
Was the lack of preparation for cold weather to blame - Yes!
So, what is to be learned from this? This is opinion, fyi:
1) we must not abandon any source of electrical generation totally in favor of any other until the time that we are sure it will operate in all conceivable circumstances.
2) the move to green energy production must be done intelligently and with the recognition of its shortcomings as well as its advantages
3) the power companies must do better planning for the "fringe" circumstances like excessively cold (or hot, or wet, etc.) weather.
4) we have to stop using all these catastrophes and problems as political weapons to "punish" the "other side", which ever side that may be.
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